Copper
Cu has benefitted from infrastructure focused stimulus spending as well as "green" stimulus spending. Stimulus spending, including policies to subsidise electric vehicles (EV's), renewable energy generation and transmission, are expected to influence consumption over the medium term due to Cu use in EV's, batteries and grid infrastructure.
Cu consumption is forecast to increase by 5% in 2021 to reach 26 million tonnes.
In Europe, Cu consumption is expected to be around 5% a year in 2021 and 2022 before stabilising. Recent manufacturing indicators have been positive particularly in Germany, France and Italy.
In the US, Cu consumption is also expected to expand with recovering economic activity and target infrastructure spending. Japan and South Korea is expected to follow a similar trend.
China consumes half of the world's Cu and expected to reach 16 million tonnes in 2023.
Production in 2021 was stable with shutdowns in Peru and Democratic Republic of Congo offset by higher output elsewhere. A number of further constraints such as tax arrangements, political stability and supply chain problems are leading to fears of production shortages over the medium term.
Mine production is forecast to reach 25 million tonnes in 2023, up an average of 6% per annum from 2021.
In 2021, Cu prices reached an all-time high of US$ 10,720/tonne, propelled by recovering consumption, expectations of future consumption and low stock levels.
The Cu spot price is forecast to average US$7,890/t.
